Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Wildcard (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold 100 Thieves (83%) · 100 Thieves at 98¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 2

100 Thieves98¢Wildcard2¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

100 Thieves

Consensus Traders

100 Thieves 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

-$703.6

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 97.5¢

+25% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

100 Thieves98%

Wildcard3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

100 Thieves10 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares20,878

Combined PnL-$718.61

Wildcard2 traders

Total Value$193.58

Total Shares872

Combined PnL+$15.01

100 Thieves — 83%Wildcard — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	100 Thievesavg 74.7¢	$9.5K	$9.4K	-$156.73	53% 761-672 (1433)
II iii252	100 Thievesavg 91¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$106.23	57% 1143-875 (2018)
AA aaaa298	100 Thievesavg 80.6¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$403.99	59% 792-554 (1346)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	100 Thievesavg 75.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$54.18	53% 1107-975 (2082)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 75.5¢	$1.0K	$893.79	-$153.01
└ Wildcard leg	Wildcardavg 20.1¢	$268.94	$476.13	+$207.19
PN pnhct	100 Thievesavg 82¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$72.08	53% 533-468 (1001)
hasobidale	100 Thievesavg 76¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$40	65% 225-119 (344)
OM omnibus-076daa	100 Thievesavg 92¢	$554.1	$551.09	-$3.01	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
AM ameisgoat11	100 Thievesavg 76.4¢	$368.89	$433.64	+$64.75	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
VeryLucky888CTR	Wildcardavg 20.4¢	$152.95	$161.25	+$8.3	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
MA manoamano	100 Thievesavg 76.3¢	$148.48	$142.97	-$5.51	51% 507-478 (985)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Wildcardavg 21¢	$25.62	$32.33	+$6.71	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
poshposh<$100	100 Thievesavg 73¢	$12.84	$16.97	+$4.13	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
SE sentrio<$100	100 Thievesavg 91¢	$9.1	$9.15	+$0.05	50% 24946-24626 (49572)

Wiretransferxyz

100 Thieves

Invested

$9,509.43

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$156.73

Record

53%

761-672 (1433)

iii252

100 Thieves

Invested

$2,433.9

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$106.23

Record

57%

1143-875 (2018)

aaaa298

100 Thieves

Invested

$2,106.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$403.99

Record

59%

792-554 (1346)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,315.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$54.18

Record

53%

1107-975 (2082)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$1,046.875.5¢-$153.01

Wildcard$268.9420.1¢+$207.19

pnhct

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,328.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$72.08

Record

53%

533-468 (1001)

hasobidale

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,216

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$40

Record

65%

225-119 (344)

omnibus-076daa

100 Thieves

Invested

$554.1

Value

$551.09

PnL

-$3.01

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

ameisgoat11

100 Thieves

Invested

$368.89

Value

$433.64

PnL

+$64.75

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

VeryLucky888CTR

Wildcard

Invested

$152.95

Value

$161.25

PnL

+$8.3

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

manoamano

100 Thieves

Invested

$148.48

Value

$142.97

PnL

-$5.51

Record

51%

507-478 (985)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Wildcard

Invested

$25.62

Value

$32.33

PnL

+$6.71

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

poshposh<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$12.84

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$4.13

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

sentrio<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

24946-24626 (49572)

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 100 Thieves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.