Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 100 Thieves (88%) · 100 Thieves at 100¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 1

100 Thieves>99¢BESTIA<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

100 Thieves

Consensus Traders

100 Thieves 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

100 Thieves100%

BESTIA0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

100 Thieves7 traders

Total Value$24.1K

Total Shares24,126

Combined PnL+$1.0K

BESTIA1 trader

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$21.95

100 Thieves — 88%BESTIA — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on 100 Thieves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharp100 Thieves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr100 Thieves 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000100 Thieves 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	100 Thievesavg 74.3¢	$10.4K	$10.8K	+$411.2	53% 532-465 (997)
II iii252	100 Thievesavg 80.7¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$150.28	57% 1143-875 (2018)
diceking	100 Thievesavg 55¢	$1.9K	$3.5K	+$752.5	57% 324-240 (564)
AA aaaa298	100 Thievesavg 74.8¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$371.37	59% 792-554 (1346)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	100 Thievesavg 70.8¢	$2.2K	$338.68	-$42.18	53% 1106-972 (2078)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 70.8¢	$222.62	$239.04	-$362.64
└ BESTIA leg	BESTIAavg 30.6¢	$132.66	$99.64	+$320.46
SE seeeeeeb	100 Thievesavg 57.1¢	$192.77	$242.96	+$50.19	52% 801-727 (1528)
PA pauleta23	100 Thievesavg 57.1¢	$192.77	$242.96	+$50.19	67% 23467-11821 (35288)
poshposh<$100	100 Thievesavg 66¢	$15.72	$16.3	+$0.59	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
AO aomendushen008CTR<$100	BESTIAavg 22¢	$22	$0.05	-$21.95	50% 943-931 (1874)

pnhct

100 Thieves

Invested

$10,428.3

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$411.2

Record

53%

532-465 (997)

iii252

100 Thieves

Invested

$5,979.78

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$150.28

Record

57%

1143-875 (2018)

diceking

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,924.99

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$752.5

Record

57%

324-240 (564)

aaaa298

100 Thieves

Invested

$3,522.19

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$371.37

Record

59%

792-554 (1346)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$2,205.1

Value

$338.68

PnL

-$42.18

Record

53%

1106-972 (2078)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$222.6270.8¢-$362.64

BESTIA$132.6630.6¢+$320.46

seeeeeeb

100 Thieves

Invested

$192.77

Value

$242.96

PnL

+$50.19

Record

52%

801-727 (1528)

pauleta23

100 Thieves

Invested

$192.77

Value

$242.96

PnL

+$50.19

Record

67%

23467-11821 (35288)

poshposh<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$15.72

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.59

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

aomendushen008CTR<$100

BESTIA

Invested

$22

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$21.95

Record

50%

943-931 (1874)

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on 100 Thieves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharp100 Thieves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr100 Thieves 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000100 Thieves 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 100 Thieves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.