Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold BESTIA, while the market favors 100 Thieves (80%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold BESTIA (50%) · BESTIA at 20¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1

100 Thieves80¢BESTIA20¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BESTIA

Consensus Traders

BESTIA 50%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$95.07

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 20¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBESTIA at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors 100 Thieves 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

100 Thieves80%

BESTIA20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BESTIA2 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares19,003

Combined PnL-$94.89

100 Thieves2 traders

Total Value$167.94

Total Shares210

Combined PnL-$0.18

BESTIA — 50%100 Thieves — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	BESTIAavg 20¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$74.89	52% 1575-1457 (3032)
KateBollingerCTR	BESTIAavg 20¢	$700	$680	-$20	68% 1753-815 (2568)
NO nobody2somebody	100 Thievesavg 80¢	$139.54	$139.54	+$0	52% 634-597 (1231)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	100 Thievesavg 81¢	$28.75	$28.4	-$0.18	50% 19431-19804 (39235)

vibing123CTR

BESTIA

Invested

$3,000.58

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$74.89

Record

52%

1575-1457 (3032)

KateBollingerCTR

BESTIA

Invested

$700

Value

$680

PnL

-$20

Record

68%

1753-815 (2568)

nobody2somebody

100 Thieves

Invested

$139.54

Value

$139.54

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

634-597 (1231)

omnibus-076daa<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$28.75

Value

$28.4

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

19431-19804 (39235)

Research grade

AvoidBESTIA at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors 100 Thieves 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BESTIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.