Will South Africa win?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 89¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$158.06

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 88.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,877

Combined PnL+$166.24

No6 traders

Total Value$29.42

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$8.18

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Yesavg 91.4¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$162.87	34% 460-894 (1354)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 79¢	$378.37	$171.18	+$328.69	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$74.8	$75.23	+$0.43	48% 1294-1381 (2675)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$23.4	$20.48	-$2.92	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 15.3¢	$8.84	$5.19	-$3.65	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$3.05	$1.72	-$1.33	57% 836-638 (1474)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.79	$1.18	+$0.39	37% 486-816 (1302)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$0.83	$0.47	-$0.36	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$0.7	$0.39	-$0.3	50% 919-925 (1844)

tradecraft

Yes

Invested

$5,123.08

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$162.87

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$378.37

Value

$171.18

PnL

+$328.69

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.8

Value

$75.23

PnL

+$0.43

Record

48%

1294-1381 (2675)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$20.48

PnL

-$2.92

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$8.84

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$3.65

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$1.33

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.39

Record

37%

486-816 (1302)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$0.36

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.