Will the match end in a draw?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$8.89

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 96¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,173

Combined PnL+$40.9

Yes5 traders

Total Value$22.22

Total Shares586

Combined PnL-$32.01

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mouzsynapse	Noavg 89.2¢	$652.44	$714.8	+$62.36	40% 155-229 (384)
probability	Noavg 88.8¢	$541.41	$331.51	-$28.27	50% 33-33 (66)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91¢	$52.45	$56.3	+$3.85	47% 1230-1384 (2614)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 91¢	$35.03	$37.59	+$2.57	57% 831-625 (1456)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$103.9	$8.1	-$30.91	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.65	$5.05	+$0.39	52% 900-835 (1735)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$5	$4.66	-$0.34	39% 1520-2392 (3912)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$4.77	$4.11	-$0.66	48% 1283-1366 (2649)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$4.65	$4.01	-$0.64	46% 862-1002 (1864)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.81	$1.36	+$0.55	37% 477-809 (1286)

mouzsynapse

Invested

$652.44

Value

$714.8

PnL

+$62.36

Record

40%

155-229 (384)

probability

Invested

$541.41

Value

$331.51

PnL

-$28.27

Record

50%

33-33 (66)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$52.45

Value

$56.3

PnL

+$3.85

Record

47%

1230-1384 (2614)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$35.03

Value

$37.59

PnL

+$2.57

Record

57%

831-625 (1456)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$103.9

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$30.91

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.39

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.34

Record

39%

1520-2392 (3912)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.66

Record

48%

1283-1366 (2649)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.64

Record

46%

862-1002 (1864)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$1.36

PnL

+$0.55

Record

37%

477-809 (1286)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.