Will Bangladesh win?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$28.08

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 93.6¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,426

Combined PnL-$19.58

Yes3 traders

Total Value$29.68

Total Shares541

Combined PnL-$8.5

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.	Noavg 95¢	$571.43	$571.45	+$0.02	48% 1283-1366 (2649)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 93.6¢	$444.99	$315.34	-$28.09	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 92.6¢	$225.9	$231.53	+$5.64	39% 1520-2392 (3912)
SM smithagent	Noavg 94.8¢	$161.1	$161.5	+$0.4	46% 862-1002 (1864)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$52.8	$54.76	+$1.96	52% 936-867 (1803)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$30.2	$19.51	-$10.69	5% 19-393 (412)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$6.52	$9.12	+$2.61	40% 155-229 (384)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$8.4	$8.61	+$0.21	50% 912-916 (1828)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$6.62	$6.78	+$0.16	47% 881-992 (1873)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$4.79	$4.91	+$0.12	52% 900-835 (1735)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.47	$1.05	-$0.42	46% 3134-3672 (6806)

dips.

Invested

$571.43

Value

$571.45

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

1283-1366 (2649)

38791873984189

Invested

$444.99

Value

$315.34

PnL

-$28.09

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$225.9

Value

$231.53

PnL

+$5.64

Record

39%

1520-2392 (3912)

smithagent

Invested

$161.1

Value

$161.5

PnL

+$0.4

Record

46%

862-1002 (1864)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$52.8

Value

$54.76

PnL

+$1.96

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.2

Value

$19.51

PnL

-$10.69

Record

19-393 (412)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.52

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$2.61

Record

40%

155-229 (384)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.61

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.62

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.42

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.