Will the match end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$7.0K
$57.71
87.3¢ → 86¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Noavg 87¢ | $3.6K | $3.2K | +$53.87 | 54% 3823-3295 (7118) |
 probability | Noavg 88¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | +$14.1 | 41% 1345-1906 (3251) |
SU SunlineTicker | Noavg 87.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$17.11 | 62% 4022-2462 (6484) |
MI mishipolis | Noavg 84¢ | $260.75 | $267.09 | +$6.34 | 50% 4440-4364 (8804) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $11 | $11.5 | +$0.5 | 52% 5870-5504 (11374) |
Invested
$3,591.62
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$53.87
Record
54%
3823-3295 (7118)
probabilityInvested
$2,381.53
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$14.1
Record
41%
1345-1906 (3251)
Invested
$1,237.89
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$17.11
Record
62%
4022-2462 (6484)
Invested
$260.75
Value
$267.09
PnL
+$6.34
Record
50%
4440-4364 (8804)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$11
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
52%
5870-5504 (11374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.