Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rwanda Women, while the market favors USA Women (55%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Victoria Women T20I: Rwanda Women vs USA Women
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rwanda Women (50%) · Rwanda Women at 45¢ · $215 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Rwanda Women
4
Rwanda Women 50%
1 arb excluded
$214.8
-$1.12
44.5¢ → 45¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRwanda Women at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors USA Women 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Rwanda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettesCTR | Rwanda Womenavg 44.8¢ | $112 | $113.75 | +$1.75 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
 tradecraftARB<$100 | Rwanda Womenavg 41.7¢ | $54.88 | $57.96 | +$3.08 | 14% 91-562 (653) |
| └ Rwanda Women leg | Rwanda Womenavg 41.7¢ | $30.13 | $33.25 | +$3.12 | |
| └ USA Women leg | USA Womenavg 54.1¢ | $24.75 | $24.72 | -$0.04 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | USA Womenavg 50.1¢ | $23.77 | $23.71 | -$0.05 | 54% 1588-1335 (2923) |
 dips.<$100 | USA Womenavg 64¢ | $18.56 | $15.08 | -$3.48 | 41% 176-256 (432) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Rwanda Womenavg 38¢ | $3.63 | $4.29 | +$0.67 | — 1-11 (12) |
Invested
$112
Value
$113.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
tradecraftARB<$100Invested
$54.88
Value
$57.96
PnL
+$3.08
Record
14%
91-562 (653)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.77
Value
$23.71
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
1588-1335 (2923)
dips.<$100Invested
$18.56
Value
$15.08
PnL
-$3.48
Record
41%
176-256 (432)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$3.63
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0.67
Record
—
1-11 (12)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.