Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Denmark, while the market favors Qatar (78%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
ICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League A: Qatar vs Denmark
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Denmark (80%) · Denmark at 22¢ · $370 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Denmark
5
Denmark 80%
$369.54
$45.6
43.2¢ → 22¢
-49% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidDenmark at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Qatar 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Denmarkavg 45¢ | $221.42 | $239.6 | +$18.18 | 59% 30063-20788 (50851) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Denmarkavg 40¢ | $95.23 | $121.42 | +$26.19 | 59% 3998-2836 (6834) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Denmarkavg 46.4¢ | $5.19 | $5.71 | +$0.51 | 41% 1345-1906 (3251) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Denmarkavg 30¢ | $1.05 | $1.79 | +$0.74 | 53% 3017-2681 (5698) |
 poshposh<$100 | Qataravg 51¢ | $1.04 | $1.02 | -$0.02 | 60% 9347-6319 (15666) |
Invested
$221.42
Value
$239.6
PnL
+$18.18
Record
59%
30063-20788 (50851)
Invested
$95.23
Value
$121.42
PnL
+$26.19
Record
59%
3998-2836 (6834)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$5.19
Value
$5.71
PnL
+$0.51
Record
41%
1345-1906 (3251)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.79
PnL
+$0.74
Record
53%
3017-2681 (5698)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
60%
9347-6319 (15666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.