ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy T20s: Papua New Guinea Women vs Scotland Women

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Scotland Women (29%) · Scotland Women at 98¢ · $411 held · ends Nov 19

Papua New Guinea Women2¢Scotland Women98¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Scotland Women

Consensus Traders

Scotland Women 29%

Total Value

$411.47

Combined PnL

-$80.74

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 98¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralScotland Women at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Scotland Women

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Papua New Guinea Women2%

Scotland Women98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Scotland Women2 traders

Total Value$348.83

Total Shares357

Combined PnL+$9.25

Papua New Guinea Women5 traders

Total Value$62.63

Total Shares3,323

Combined PnL-$89.99

Scotland Women — 29%Papua New Guinea Women — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Scotland Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperPapua New Guinea Women 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPapua New Guinea Women 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Papua New Guinea Women 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Scotland Womenavg 90.5¢	$310.78	$320.33	+$9.54	21% 167-631 (798)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 3¢	$57.13	$37.48	-$19.65	42% 303-416 (719)
PA pauleta23<$100	Scotland Womenavg 98¢	$28.8	$28.51	-$0.29	33% 259-515 (774)
dips.CTR<$100	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 4.3¢	$50.05	$18.05	-$32	45% 470-582 (1052)
probabilityCTR<$100	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 19.8¢	$45.05	$6.84	-$38.21	44% 11-14 (25)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 4¢	$0.31	$0.23	-$0.08	26% 163-475 (638)
MI midwicket72CTR<$100	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 8¢	$0.09	$0.03	-$0.05	— 3-7 (10)

tradecraft

Scotland Women

Invested

$310.78

Value

$320.33

PnL

+$9.54

Record

21%

167-631 (798)

smithagentCTR<$100

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$57.13

Value

$37.48

PnL

-$19.65

Record

42%

303-416 (719)

pauleta23<$100

Scotland Women

Invested

$28.8

Value

$28.51

PnL

-$0.29

Record

33%

259-515 (774)

dips.CTR<$100

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$50.05

Value

$18.05

PnL

-$32

Record

45%

470-582 (1052)

probabilityCTR<$100

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$45.05

Value

$6.84

PnL

-$38.21

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.08

Record

26%

163-475 (638)

midwicket72CTR<$100

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

3-7 (10)

Research grade

NeutralScotland Women at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Scotland Women

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Scotland Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperPapua New Guinea Women 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPapua New Guinea Women 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Papua New Guinea Women 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Scotland Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.