ICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League A: Papua New Guinea vs Kuwait
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kuwait (33%) · Kuwait at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Kuwait
6
Kuwait 33%
$2.5K
$107.08
74.9¢ → 98.4¢
+31% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralKuwait at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JoeytheReal | Kuwaitavg 74.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$355.03 | 40% 29-44 (73) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Papua New Guineaavg 23.4¢ | $205.03 | $101.34 | -$102.19 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Kuwaitavg 98.1¢ | $20 | $19.84 | -$0.16 | 67% 23264-11669 (34933) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Papua New Guineaavg 18.3¢ | $121.48 | $17.64 | -$103.85 | 38% 3184-5178 (8362) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Papua New Guineaavg 24¢ | $51.56 | $10.74 | -$45.12 | 59% 9906-6885 (16791) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Papua New Guineaavg 4.7¢ | $2.17 | $5.53 | +$3.37 | 51% 5970-5661 (11631) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$355.03
Record
40%
29-44 (73)
Invested
$205.03
Value
$101.34
PnL
-$102.19
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
Invested
$20
Value
$19.84
PnL
-$0.16
Record
67%
23264-11669 (34933)
Invested
$121.48
Value
$17.64
PnL
-$103.85
Record
38%
3184-5178 (8362)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$51.56
Value
$10.74
PnL
-$45.12
Record
59%
9906-6885 (16791)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2.17
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$3.37
Record
51%
5970-5661 (11631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.