Will Pakistan win?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $873 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$872.59
$99.65
69.6¢ → 77¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 68.7¢ | $452.51 | $491.11 | +$60.59 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
SU SunlineTicker | Noavg 73.4¢ | $157.14 | $169.06 | +$11.92 | 70% 1655-702 (2357) |
 probability | Noavg 71.1¢ | $136.21 | $151.35 | +$15.13 | — 2-11 (13) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 60.3¢ | $39.07 | $50.06 | +$11 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 | 16% 112-570 (682) |
Invested
$452.51
Value
$491.11
PnL
+$60.59
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$157.14
Value
$169.06
PnL
+$11.92
Record
70%
1655-702 (2357)
probabilityInvested
$136.21
Value
$151.35
PnL
+$15.13
Record
—
2-11 (13)
Invested
$39.07
Value
$50.06
PnL
+$11
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$11
PnL
+$1
Record
16%
112-570 (682)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.