Will Sri Lanka win?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.3K
-$4.27
80.6¢ → 87.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-30 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $414.28 | $456.28 | +$42.65 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
SU SunlineTicker | Noavg 83¢ | $384.15 | $369.99 | -$14.16 | 70% 1546-674 (2220) |
 tradecraftCTR | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $348.21 | $315.33 | -$32.88 | 12% 77-550 (627) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $91.06 | $96.06 | +$5 | — 1-11 (12) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.7¢ | $64.3 | $60.76 | -$3.54 | 41% 159-232 (391) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $26.52 | $25.18 | -$1.34 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
Invested
$414.28
Value
$456.28
PnL
+$42.65
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$384.15
Value
$369.99
PnL
-$14.16
Record
70%
1546-674 (2220)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$348.21
Value
$315.33
PnL
-$32.88
Record
12%
77-550 (627)
probability<$100Invested
$91.06
Value
$96.06
PnL
+$5
Record
—
1-11 (12)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$64.3
Value
$60.76
PnL
-$3.54
Record
41%
159-232 (391)
Invested
$26.52
Value
$25.18
PnL
-$1.34
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.