Will the match end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$3.3K
-$329.03
64.9¢ → 89.5¢
+38% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraft | Yesavg 65.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.9K | +$771.91 | 20% 159-628 (787) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Noavg 49.2¢ | $851.86 | $176.36 | -$649.56 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Noavg 64.4¢ | $597.86 | $97.42 | -$500.44 | 53% 5779-5161 (10940) |
MO mouzsynapse<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $22.5 | $67.13 | +$44.63 | 43% 52-68 (120) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $26.95 | $31.4 | +$4.44 | 26% 1235-3523 (4758) |
tradecraftInvested
$2,133.44
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$771.91
Record
20%
159-628 (787)
Invested
$851.86
Value
$176.36
PnL
-$649.56
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$597.86
Value
$97.42
PnL
-$500.44
Record
53%
5779-5161 (10940)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$67.13
PnL
+$44.63
Record
43%
52-68 (120)
Invested
$26.95
Value
$31.4
PnL
+$4.44
Record
26%
1235-3523 (4758)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.