England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pakistan (100%) · Pakistan at 64¢ · $903 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Pakistan
3
Pakistan 100%
$903.08
$5.08
64.2¢ → 64¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPakistan at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72 | Pakistanavg 65¢ | $497 | $489.36 | +$0 | 54% 249-210 (459) |
38 38791873984189 | Pakistanavg 62.7¢ | $252.24 | $257.32 | +$5.08 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Pakistanavg 64¢ | $156.4 | $156.4 | +$0 | 51% 3920-3835 (7755) |
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Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.