Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pakistan, while the market favors Sri Lanka (96%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pakistan (71%) · Pakistan at 3.8¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

Pakistan4¢Sri Lanka96¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pakistan

Consensus Traders

Pakistan 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$88.45

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 3.8¢

-94% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPakistan at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pakistan

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Sri Lanka 96%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pakistan4%

Sri Lanka96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pakistan5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,356

Combined PnL+$23.32

Sri Lanka2 traders

Total Value$318.73

Total Shares484

Combined PnL+$65.13

Pakistan — 71%Sri Lanka — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Pakistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPakistan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPakistan 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPakistan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pakistan 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Sri Lankaavg 75¢	$7.0K	$6.3K	-$702.03	55% 245-204 (449)
└ Sri Lanka leg	Sri Lankaavg 75¢	$4.1K	$4.9K	+$738.46
└ Pakistan leg	Pakistanavg 22.9¢	$2.9K	$1.5K	$-1.4K
NO NotradecopyCTR	Pakistanavg 62.9¢	$999.98	$969.67	+$9.44	49% 3887-4075 (7962)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Pakistanavg 62.9¢	$996.9	$966.98	-$6.14	51% 3886-3800 (7686)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Sri Lankaavg 53.2¢	$223.6	$300.3	+$76.7	59% 29915-20638 (50553)
tradecraftARB<$100	Sri Lankaavg 70¢	$300.91	$298.95	-$1.97	52% 5806-5432 (11238)
└ Sri Lanka leg	Sri Lankaavg 70¢	$174.99	$211.24	+$36.25
└ Pakistan leg	Pakistanavg 22.3¢	$125.92	$87.7	-$38.22
probabilityCTR<$100	Pakistanavg 59.2¢	$73.09	$87.65	+$14.56	42% 1340-1814 (3154)
poshposhCTR<$100	Pakistanavg 57¢	$30.23	$37.66	+$7.43	60% 9071-5988 (15059)
PA pauleta23<$100	Sri Lankaavg 47.2¢	$30	$18.43	-$11.57	67% 23013-11416 (34429)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pakistanavg 49¢	$2.11	$0.14	-$1.97	54% 2548-2180 (4728)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Sri Lanka

Invested

$7,013.96

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$702.03

Record

55%

245-204 (449)

Both legs:

Sri Lanka$4,116.4975¢+$738.46

Pakistan$2,897.4722.9¢$-1.4K

NotradecopyCTR

Pakistan

Invested

$999.98

Value

$969.67

PnL

+$9.44

Record

49%

3887-4075 (7962)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Pakistan

Invested

$996.9

Value

$966.98

PnL

-$6.14

Record

51%

3886-3800 (7686)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Sri Lanka

Invested

$223.6

Value

$300.3

PnL

+$76.7

Record

59%

29915-20638 (50553)

tradecraftARB<$100

Sri Lanka

Invested

$300.91

Value

$298.95

PnL

-$1.97

Record

52%

5806-5432 (11238)

Both legs:

Sri Lanka$174.9970¢+$36.25

Pakistan$125.9222.3¢-$38.22

probabilityCTR<$100

Pakistan

Invested

$73.09

Value

$87.65

PnL

+$14.56

Record

42%

1340-1814 (3154)

poshposhCTR<$100

Pakistan

Invested

$30.23

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$7.43

Record

60%

9071-5988 (15059)

pauleta23<$100

Sri Lanka

Invested

$30

Value

$18.43

PnL

-$11.57

Record

67%

23013-11416 (34429)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pakistan

Invested

$2.11

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.97

Record

54%

2548-2180 (4728)

Research grade

AvoidPakistan at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Pakistan

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Sri Lanka 96%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Pakistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPakistan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPakistan 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPakistan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pakistan 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pakistan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.0%

3.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1909.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

2009.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.