Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Oman, while the market favors Netherlands (71%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cricket World Cup League 2: Oman vs Netherlands
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Oman (80%) · Oman at 30¢ · $417 held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Oman
5
Oman 80%
1 arb excluded
$417.27
-$2.22
32.2¢ → 29.5¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOman at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Netherlands 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Omanavg 35.5¢ | $168.41 | $146.3 | -$25.48 | 47% 11778-13375 (25153) |
| └ Oman leg | Omanavg 35.5¢ | $121.76 | $101.18 | -$20.68 | |
| └ Netherlands leg | Netherlandsavg 69¢ | $44.16 | $45.12 | -$4.8 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Omanavg 33.7¢ | $86.07 | $79.1 | -$6.97 | 58% 11000-8017 (19017) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Netherlandsavg 63.6¢ | $55.28 | $60.02 | +$4.74 | 51% 6136-5857 (11993) |
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100 | Omanavg 27.3¢ | $46.06 | $52.38 | +$6.32 | 38% 536-860 (1396) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Omanavg 33.9¢ | $55.84 | $48.66 | -$7.18 | 48% 9587-10544 (20131) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Omanavg 34¢ | $29.92 | $30.8 | +$0.88 | 45% 2252-2781 (5033) |
Invested
$168.41
Value
$146.3
PnL
-$25.48
Record
47%
11778-13375 (25153)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$86.07
Value
$79.1
PnL
-$6.97
Record
58%
11000-8017 (19017)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$55.28
Value
$60.02
PnL
+$4.74
Record
51%
6136-5857 (11993)
Invested
$46.06
Value
$52.38
PnL
+$6.32
Record
38%
536-860 (1396)
Invested
$55.84
Value
$48.66
PnL
-$7.18
Record
48%
9587-10544 (20131)
Invested
$29.92
Value
$30.8
PnL
+$0.88
Record
45%
2252-2781 (5033)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.