Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold New Zealand, while the market favors India (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

India Tour of New Zealand ODIs: New Zealand vs India

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand (67%) · New Zealand at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

New Zealand47¢India53¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Zealand

Consensus Traders

New Zealand 67%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$7.46

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 46.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors India 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

New Zealand47%

India54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

India3 traders

Total Value$466.57

Total Shares894

Combined PnL-$22.87

New Zealand6 traders

Total Value$715.38

Total Shares1,517

Combined PnL+$15.41

India — 33%New Zealand — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on New Zealand. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Zealand 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000New Zealand 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bagwell306	Indiaavg 55.1¢	$407.31	$384.08	-$23.23	33% 70-139 (209)
GA GaditimaCTR	New Zealandavg 46¢	$280.83	$280.85	+$0.02	49% 300-314 (614)
MI midwicket72CTR	New Zealandavg 46¢	$258.4	$261.26	+$2.85	33% 11-22 (33)
38 38791873984189CTR	New Zealandavg 44.8¢	$253.29	$135.97	+$11.33	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Indiaavg 53¢	$67.28	$67.91	+$0.63	46% 526-624 (1150)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	New Zealandavg 45.5¢	$18.03	$18.24	+$0.21	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
dips.CTR<$100	New Zealandavg 43¢	$14.62	$15.64	+$1.02	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Indiaavg 53¢	$14.86	$14.58	-$0.28	45% 35-43 (78)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	New Zealandavg 46.3¢	$3.45	$3.43	-$0.02	62% 227-140 (367)

Bagwell306

India

Invested

$407.31

Value

$384.08

PnL

-$23.23

Record

33%

70-139 (209)

GaditimaCTR

New Zealand

Invested

$280.83

Value

$280.85

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

300-314 (614)

midwicket72CTR

New Zealand

Invested

$258.4

Value

$261.26

PnL

+$2.85

Record

33%

11-22 (33)

38791873984189CTR

New Zealand

Invested

$253.29

Value

$135.97

PnL

+$11.33

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

omnibus-076daa<$100

India

Invested

$67.28

Value

$67.91

PnL

+$0.63

Record

46%

526-624 (1150)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$18.03

Value

$18.24

PnL

+$0.21

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

dips.CTR<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$14.62

Value

$15.64

PnL

+$1.02

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

India

Invested

$14.86

Value

$14.58

PnL

-$0.28

Record

45%

35-43 (78)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

227-140 (367)

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors India 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on New Zealand. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Zealand 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000New Zealand 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Zealand wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.