Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold New Zealand, while the market favors India (52%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
India Tour of New Zealand ODIs: New Zealand vs India
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand (30%) · New Zealand at 49¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
New Zealand
10
New Zealand 30%
$12.5K
$172.59
47.2¢ → 48.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNew Zealand at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors India 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72CTR | New Zealandavg 47.4¢ | $7.6K | $7.8K | +$175.9 | 52% 303-280 (583) |
BA Bagwell306 | Indiaavg 55.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$26.55 | 47% 4797-5304 (10101) |
 dips. | Indiaavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$29.34 | 48% 17837-19553 (37390) |
38 38791873984189 | Indiaavg 56.3¢ | $211 | $825.33 | -$24.9 | 48% 72263-78012 (150275) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | New Zealandavg 45¢ | $1.0K | $474.08 | +$15.3 | 54% 5399-4609 (10008) |
 tradecraft | Indiaavg 54¢ | $386.52 | $390.16 | +$3.65 | 51% 6933-6586 (13519) |
GT gt7238 | Indiaavg 55¢ | $378.02 | $353.81 | -$5.37 | 45% 703-875 (1578) |
SE sentrio | Indiaavg 54¢ | $221.5 | $118.5 | -$1.11 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Indiaavg 52.1¢ | $107.55 | $109.38 | +$1.83 | 50% 24147-24262 (48409) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | New Zealandavg 42¢ | $42 | $46.5 | +$4.5 | 47% 8799-9989 (18788) |
Invested
$7,590.18
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$175.9
Record
52%
303-280 (583)
Invested
$1,371.82
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$26.55
Record
47%
4797-5304 (10101)
dips.Invested
$1,017.12
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$29.34
Record
48%
17837-19553 (37390)
Invested
$211
Value
$825.33
PnL
-$24.9
Record
48%
72263-78012 (150275)
Invested
$1,019.52
Value
$474.08
PnL
+$15.3
Record
54%
5399-4609 (10008)
tradecraftInvested
$386.52
Value
$390.16
PnL
+$3.65
Record
51%
6933-6586 (13519)
Invested
$378.02
Value
$353.81
PnL
-$5.37
Record
45%
703-875 (1578)
Invested
$221.5
Value
$118.5
PnL
-$1.11
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
Invested
$107.55
Value
$109.38
PnL
+$1.83
Record
50%
24147-24262 (48409)
Invested
$42
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$4.5
Record
47%
8799-9989 (18788)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
midwicket72
CTRNew Zealand — $7.8K
Bagwell306
India — $1.3K
dips.
India — $1.0K
38791873984189
India — $825.33
SunlineTicker
CTRNew Zealand — $474.08
tradecraft
India — $390.16
gt7238
India — $353.81
sentrio
India — $118.5
omnibus-076daa
India — $109.38
Gaditima
CTRNew Zealand — $46.5