India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand (71%) · New Zealand at 60¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 8

New Zealand60¢India40¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Zealand

Consensus Traders

New Zealand 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

-$102.02

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

New Zealand60%

India41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

India2 traders

Total Value$973.34

Total Shares1,827

Combined PnL+$167.12

New Zealand5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,127

Combined PnL-$269.14

India — 29%New Zealand — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Indiaavg 46.7¢	$27.1K	$27.0K	-$80.96	54% 251-215 (466)
└ India leg	Indiaavg 46.7¢	$13.6K	$14.1K	+$518.04
└ New Zealand leg	New Zealandavg 53.9¢	$13.5K	$12.9K	-$599
BL blketCTR	Indiaavg 45.9¢	$2.0K	$956.18	+$172.91	68% 603-282 (885)
tradecraft	New Zealandavg 58.2¢	$1.2K	$893.93	-$302.88	51% 6062-5779 (11841)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Indiaavg 43.9¢	$743.4	$798.72	+$55.33	48% 8890-9482 (18372)
└ India leg	Indiaavg 43.9¢	$494.1	$523.2	+$29.1
└ New Zealand leg	New Zealandavg 48.4¢	$249.29	$275.52	+$26.23
SU SunlineTicker	New Zealandavg 57.1¢	$532.67	$560.07	+$27.4	62% 4201-2575 (6776)
poshposhARB<$100	New Zealandavg 52.7¢	$248.55	$267.33	+$18.78	58% 10615-7587 (18202)
└ New Zealand leg	New Zealandavg 52.7¢	$146.7	$147.57	+$0.87
└ India leg	Indiaavg 40¢	$101.85	$119.76	+$17.91
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Indiaavg 48¢	$149	$95.46	+$12.08	50% 4581-4518 (9099)
└ New Zealand leg	New Zealandavg 50.5¢	$46.68	$55.46	+$20.08
└ India leg	Indiaavg 48¢	$48	$40	-$8
US User7429<$100	New Zealandavg 52¢	$52	$60	+$8	55% 8407-6759 (15166)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	New Zealandavg 67¢	$20.1	$18	-$2.1	51% 1524-1473 (2997)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Indiaavg 56¢	$22.35	$17.16	-$5.79	47% 2569-2855 (5424)
HRTrading<$100	New Zealandavg 47.9¢	$4.02	$4.45	+$0.43	53% 5561-4981 (10542)

midwicket72ARB<$100

India

Invested

$27,101.76

Value

$27.0K

PnL

-$80.96

Record

54%

251-215 (466)

Both legs:

India$13,624.1346.7¢+$518.04

New Zealand$13,477.6353.9¢-$599

blketCTR

India

Invested

$2,000

Value

$956.18

PnL

+$172.91

Record

68%

603-282 (885)

tradecraft

New Zealand

Invested

$1,196.81

Value

$893.93

PnL

-$302.88

Record

51%

6062-5779 (11841)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

India

Invested

$743.4

Value

$798.72

PnL

+$55.33

Record

48%

8890-9482 (18372)

Both legs:

India$494.143.9¢+$29.1

New Zealand$249.2948.4¢+$26.23

SunlineTicker

New Zealand

Invested

$532.67

Value

$560.07

PnL

+$27.4

Record

62%

4201-2575 (6776)

poshposhARB<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$248.55

Value

$267.33

PnL

+$18.78

Record

58%

10615-7587 (18202)

Both legs:

New Zealand$146.752.7¢+$0.87

India$101.8540¢+$17.91

mishipolisARB<$100

India

Invested

$149

Value

$95.46

PnL

+$12.08

Record

50%

4581-4518 (9099)

Both legs:

New Zealand$46.6850.5¢+$20.08

India$4848¢-$8

User7429<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$52

Value

$60

PnL

+$8

Record

55%

8407-6759 (15166)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$20.1

Value

$18

PnL

-$2.1

Record

51%

1524-1473 (2997)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

India

Invested

$22.35

Value

$17.16

PnL

-$5.79

Record

47%

2569-2855 (5424)

HRTrading<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$4.02

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

5561-4981 (10542)

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Zealand wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.