Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold New Zealand, while the market favors India (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand (60%) · New Zealand at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
New Zealand
5
New Zealand 60%
$1.4K
$59.16
39.6¢ → 40.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNew Zealand at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors India 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on New Zealand. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72CTR | New Zealandavg 40¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$38.61 | 54% 249-209 (458) |
 probabilityCTR | New Zealandavg 36.1¢ | $129.62 | $143.51 | +$17.48 | 41% 1359-1916 (3275) |
 tradecraftCTR | New Zealandavg 40.2¢ | $139.91 | $142.87 | +$2.96 | 51% 5961-5650 (11611) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Indiaavg 58.6¢ | $26.25 | $26.42 | +$0.17 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Indiaavg 59¢ | $2.88 | $2.83 | -$0.05 | 39% 3126-4927 (8053) |
Invested
$1,036.17
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$38.61
Record
54%
249-209 (458)
probabilityCTRInvested
$129.62
Value
$143.51
PnL
+$17.48
Record
41%
1359-1916 (3275)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$139.91
Value
$142.87
PnL
+$2.96
Record
51%
5961-5650 (11611)
Invested
$26.25
Value
$26.42
PnL
+$0.17
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.83
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
3126-4927 (8053)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.