Cricket World Cup League 2: Netherlands vs Oman
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Netherlands (67%) · Netherlands at 97¢ · $111 held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Netherlands
3
Netherlands 67%
$111.19
$6.09
Research grade
NeutralNetherlands at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability<$100 | Netherlandsavg 62¢ | $47.98 | $75.06 | +$6.19 | 42% 1340-1814 (3154) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Netherlandsavg 97.3¢ | $30 | $29.9 | -$0.1 | 67% 23017-11419 (34436) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Omanavg 2.6¢ | $6.23 | $6.23 | -$0 | 60% 9075-5994 (15069) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.