Victoria Women T20I: Namibia Women vs USA Women
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Namibia Women (83%) · Namibia Women at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Namibia Women
6
Namibia Women 83%
$1.5K
$108.36
56.9¢ → 61.5¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNamibia Women at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Namibia Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Namibia Womenavg 56.9¢ | $615.48 | $660.28 | +$44.8 | 28% 151-392 (543) |
 alpheclabs2 | Namibia Womenavg 56.4¢ | $427.69 | $462.39 | +$34.7 | 46% 109-130 (239) |
 tradecraft | Namibia Womenavg 57.4¢ | $317.91 | $349.55 | +$31.64 | 19% 146-608 (754) |
 probability<$100 | Namibia Womenavg 61¢ | $46.97 | $43.89 | -$3.08 | — 5-11 (16) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Namibia Womenavg 54¢ | $15.7 | $15.94 | +$0.24 | 53% 1788-1590 (3378) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | USA Womenavg 36¢ | $0.66 | $0.71 | +$0.05 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
Invested
$615.48
Value
$660.28
PnL
+$44.8
Record
28%
151-392 (543)
alpheclabs2Invested
$427.69
Value
$462.39
PnL
+$34.7
Record
46%
109-130 (239)
tradecraftInvested
$317.91
Value
$349.55
PnL
+$31.64
Record
19%
146-608 (754)
probability<$100Invested
$46.97
Value
$43.89
PnL
-$3.08
Record
—
5-11 (16)
Invested
$15.7
Value
$15.94
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
1788-1590 (3378)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.71
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.