Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ireland, while the market favors Namibia (63%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ireland Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs Ireland

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ireland (50%) · Ireland at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Namibia63¢Ireland37¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ireland

Consensus Traders

Ireland 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$9.73

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 37¢

-31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralIreland at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ireland

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Namibia 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Namibia63%

Ireland37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ireland3 traders

Total Value$865.7

Total Shares1,696

Combined PnL-$51.37

Namibia3 traders

Total Value$601.56

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL+$41.64

Ireland — 50%Namibia — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bagwell306CTR	Irelandavg 53.8¢	$839.22	$796.1	-$43.11	58% 4065-2890 (6955)
tradecraft	Namibiaavg 46.7¢	$275.8	$304.6	+$28.81	51% 6062-5779 (11841)
MI midwicket72	Namibiaavg 58¢	$269.81	$281.51	+$11.71	54% 251-215 (466)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Irelandavg 57¢	$74.78	$66.9	-$8.53	47% 2569-2855 (5424)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Namibiaavg 56.1¢	$14.31	$15.44	+$1.13	48% 8890-9482 (18372)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Irelandavg 38.7¢	$2.43	$2.69	+$0.27	53% 5561-4981 (10542)

Bagwell306CTR

Ireland

Invested

$839.22

Value

$796.1

PnL

-$43.11

Record

58%

4065-2890 (6955)

tradecraft

Namibia

Invested

$275.8

Value

$304.6

PnL

+$28.81

Record

51%

6062-5779 (11841)

midwicket72

Namibia

Invested

$269.81

Value

$281.51

PnL

+$11.71

Record

54%

251-215 (466)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Ireland

Invested

$74.78

Value

$66.9

PnL

-$8.53

Record

47%

2569-2855 (5424)

topdogbigboi<$100

Namibia

Invested

$14.31

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

8890-9482 (18372)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Ireland

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

5561-4981 (10542)

Research grade

NeutralIreland at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ireland

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Namibia 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ireland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.