Ireland Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs Ireland
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Namibia (67%) · Namibia at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Namibia
3
Namibia 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.8K
$438.28
59.1¢ → 60¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNamibia at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Namibia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72 | Namibiaavg 60.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$247.96 | 54% 249-210 (459) |
 tradecraft | Namibiaavg 56.9¢ | $618.02 | $814.3 | +$196.28 | 51% 5970-5661 (11631) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Namibiaavg 69.6¢ | $406.85 | $349.71 | -$57.14 | 38% 3184-5178 (8362) |
| └ Namibia leg | Namibiaavg 69.6¢ | $229.23 | $247.19 | +$17.96 | |
| └ Ireland leg | Irelandavg 43.3¢ | $177.61 | $102.52 | -$75.1 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Namibiaavg 67.5¢ | $554.54 | $331.53 | -$82.8 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
| └ Namibia leg | Namibiaavg 67.5¢ | $277.87 | $251.25 | -$26.84 | |
| └ Ireland leg | Irelandavg 48.3¢ | $99.49 | $80.29 | -$55.97 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Irelandavg 38.2¢ | $52.6 | $46.64 | -$5.96 | 59% 9906-6885 (16791) |
Invested
$1,033.45
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$247.96
Record
54%
249-210 (459)
tradecraftInvested
$618.02
Value
$814.3
PnL
+$196.28
Record
51%
5970-5661 (11631)
Invested
$406.85
Value
$349.71
PnL
-$57.14
Record
38%
3184-5178 (8362)
Both legs:
Invested
$554.54
Value
$331.53
PnL
-$82.8
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$52.6
Value
$46.64
PnL
-$5.96
Record
59%
9906-6885 (16791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.