Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Namibia, while the market favors Ireland (59%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ireland Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs Ireland
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Namibia (57%) · Namibia at 42¢ · $211 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Namibia
7
Namibia 57%
$210.63
-$12.31
42.8¢ → 41.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNamibia at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Ireland 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Namibia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GaditimaCTR | Namibiaavg 44.4¢ | $133.35 | $121.5 | -$11.85 | 40% 306-460 (766) |
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100 | Namibiaavg 41¢ | $67.86 | $66.2 | -$1.66 | 49% 3887-4075 (7962) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Namibiaavg 35.7¢ | $9.84 | $11.27 | +$0.74 | 42% 1340-1814 (3154) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100 | Irelandavg 61.4¢ | $4.96 | $4.85 | +$0.01 | 61% 50-32 (82) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Irelandavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $3 | +$0.2 | 50% 660-651 (1311) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Namibiaavg 38.9¢ | $2.18 | $2.38 | +$0.2 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
BA Bagwell306<$100 | Irelandavg 58¢ | $1.38 | $1.43 | +$0.05 | 59% 3980-2819 (6799) |
Invested
$133.35
Value
$121.5
PnL
-$11.85
Record
40%
306-460 (766)
Invested
$67.86
Value
$66.2
PnL
-$1.66
Record
49%
3887-4075 (7962)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$9.84
Value
$11.27
PnL
+$0.74
Record
42%
1340-1814 (3154)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.01
Record
61%
50-32 (82)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
660-651 (1311)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.18
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
2513-2131 (4644)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.43
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
3980-2819 (6799)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.