Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ireland Women, while the market favors Sri Lanka Women (88%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy T20s: Sri Lanka Women vs Ireland Women

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ireland Women (78%) · Ireland Women at 12¢ · $540 held · ends Nov 19

Sri Lanka Women88¢Ireland Women12¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ireland Women

Consensus Traders

Ireland Women 78%

Total Value

$540.01

Combined PnL

-$320.7

Smart Money Entry

25.8¢ → 12¢

-53% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidIreland Women at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ireland Women

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Sri Lanka Women 88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sri Lanka Women88%

Ireland Women12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ireland Women7 traders

Total Value$418.39

Total Shares2,640

Combined PnL-$359.27

Sri Lanka Women2 traders

Total Value$121.62

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$38.58

Ireland Women — 78%Sri Lanka Women — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Ireland Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperIreland Women 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIreland Women 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Ireland Women 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72CTR	Ireland Womenavg 26¢	$491.69	$189.11	-$302.58	— 3-7 (10)
NO NotJumpCTR	Ireland Womenavg 50¢	$183.75	$172.73	-$11.03	54% 386-329 (715)
MI mishipolis<$100	Sri Lanka Womenavg 58¢	$59.09	$90.91	+$31.82	41% 78-112 (190)
LR lryyy<$100	Sri Lanka Womenavg 69.1¢	$23.95	$30.71	+$6.76	45% 341-422 (763)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Ireland Womenavg 12.7¢	$28.99	$22.9	-$6.09	26% 163-475 (638)
SM smithagentCTR	Ireland Womenavg 17.9¢	$239.01	$18.5	-$20.51	42% 303-416 (719)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Ireland Womenavg 15¢	$11.25	$7.5	-$3.75	32% 266-576 (842)
dips.CTR<$100	Ireland Womenavg 32¢	$17.6	$5.5	-$12.1	45% 470-582 (1052)
probabilityCTR<$100	Ireland Womenavg 24.9¢	$5.38	$2.16	-$3.22	44% 11-14 (25)

midwicket72CTR

Ireland Women

Invested

$491.69

Value

$189.11

PnL

-$302.58

Record

—

3-7 (10)

NotJumpCTR

Ireland Women

Invested

$183.75

Value

$172.73

PnL

-$11.03

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

mishipolis<$100

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$59.09

Value

$90.91

PnL

+$31.82

Record

41%

78-112 (190)

lryyy<$100

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$23.95

Value

$30.71

PnL

+$6.76

Record

45%

341-422 (763)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Ireland Women

Invested

$28.99

Value

$22.9

PnL

-$6.09

Record

26%

163-475 (638)

smithagentCTR

Ireland Women

Invested

$239.01

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$20.51

Record

42%

303-416 (719)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Ireland Women

Invested

$11.25

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$3.75

Record

32%

266-576 (842)

dips.CTR<$100

Ireland Women

Invested

$17.6

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$12.1

Record

45%

470-582 (1052)

probabilityCTR<$100

Ireland Women

Invested

$5.38

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$3.22

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

Research grade

AvoidIreland Women at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Ireland Women

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Sri Lanka Women 88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Ireland Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperIreland Women 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIreland Women 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Ireland Women 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ireland Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.