England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold England (100%) · England at 68¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
England
6
England 100%
$18.5K
$99.17
67¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralEngland at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on England. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72 | Englandavg 67.2¢ | $22.0K | $14.8K | +$56.8 | 55% 247-206 (453) |
 tradecraft | Englandavg 65.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | +$27.07 | 52% 5884-5521 (11405) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Englandavg 66¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 51% 3894-3815 (7709) |
NO Notradecopy | Englandavg 66¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 49% 3896-4091 (7987) |
 probability | Englandavg 65.9¢ | $384.81 | $385.28 | +$6.31 | 41% 1347-1906 (3253) |
 poshposh | Englandavg 64¢ | $288 | $297 | +$9 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$21,959.94
Value
$14.8K
PnL
+$56.8
Record
55%
247-206 (453)
tradecraftInvested
$1,620.06
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$27.07
Record
52%
5884-5521 (11405)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3894-3815 (7709)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
3896-4091 (7987)
probabilityInvested
$384.81
Value
$385.28
PnL
+$6.31
Record
41%
1347-1906 (3253)
poshposhInvested
$288
Value
$297
PnL
+$9
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.