ICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League A: Kuwait vs Kenya
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kuwait (60%) · Kuwait at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Kuwait
5
Kuwait 60%
$4.9K
$-1.6K
68.2¢ → 62.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKuwait at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA madkkee | Kuwaitavg 68.4¢ | $6.2K | $4.5K | $-1.7K | 66% 1009-519 (1528) |
MI mishipolisCTR | Kenyaavg 31¢ | $124 | $200 | +$76 | 50% 4435-4362 (8797) |
 poshposh | Kuwaitavg 59¢ | $146.46 | $163.16 | +$16.7 | 60% 9347-6319 (15666) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Kenyaavg 29¢ | $12.89 | $22.25 | +$9.36 | 53% 3017-2681 (5698) |
 probability<$100 | Kuwaitavg 61¢ | $11.52 | $9.45 | -$2.08 | 41% 1345-1906 (3251) |
Invested
$6,164.91
Value
$4.5K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
66%
1009-519 (1528)
Invested
$124
Value
$200
PnL
+$76
Record
50%
4435-4362 (8797)
poshposhInvested
$146.46
Value
$163.16
PnL
+$16.7
Record
60%
9347-6319 (15666)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.89
Value
$22.25
PnL
+$9.36
Record
53%
3017-2681 (5698)
probability<$100Invested
$11.52
Value
$9.45
PnL
-$2.08
Record
41%
1345-1906 (3251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.