ICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League A: Kenya vs Papua New Guinea
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kenya (100%) · Kenya at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Kenya
4
Kenya 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$191.23
70.7¢ → 100¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKenya at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Kenyaavg 61.7¢ | $647.21 | $710.96 | +$63.74 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Kenyaavg 76.4¢ | $451.46 | $502.37 | +$50.91 | 49% 19161-19553 (38714) |
 poshposh | Kenyaavg 79.4¢ | $313.15 | $388.32 | +$75.17 | 59% 10176-7169 (17345) |
MI mishipolisARB<$100 | Papua New Guineaavg 15.9¢ | $35.33 | $45.25 | +$9.92 | 50% 4542-4491 (9033) |
| └ Kenya leg | Kenyaavg 46¢ | $13.12 | $24.25 | +$11.13 | |
| └ Papua New Guinea leg | Papua New Guineaavg 15.9¢ | $22.21 | $21 | -$1.21 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Kenyaavg 50¢ | $3.3 | $4.7 | +$1.41 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
Invested
$647.21
Value
$710.96
PnL
+$63.74
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$451.46
Value
$502.37
PnL
+$50.91
Record
49%
19161-19553 (38714)
poshposhInvested
$313.15
Value
$388.32
PnL
+$75.17
Record
59%
10176-7169 (17345)
Invested
$35.33
Value
$45.25
PnL
+$9.92
Record
50%
4542-4491 (9033)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$1.41
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.