Will West Indies win?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 58¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$73.48
50.3¢ → 58¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-24 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 51.6¢ | $516.61 | $479.65 | -$36.96 | 46% 12022-13879 (25901) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.6¢ | $365.42 | $290.48 | -$74.94 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $151.18 | $189.17 | +$37.98 | |
 tradecraft | Yesavg 49.3¢ | $472.93 | $406.02 | -$66.9 | 51% 6433-6217 (12650) |
DI dips.CTR | Noavg 51.2¢ | $194.87 | $180.77 | -$14.1 | 47% 10775-12319 (23094) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 52¢ | $144.94 | $152.01 | +$7.07 | 53% 23789-20956 (44745) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $65.54 | $67.29 | +$1.75 | 60% 4632-3039 (7671) |
 probability<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $52.5 | $53.75 | +$1.25 | 40% 1583-2384 (3967) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $4.1 | $3.8 | -$0.3 | 48% 5491-5999 (11490) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $5.98 | $3.73 | -$2.25 | 48% 3352-3568 (6920) |
Invested
$516.61
Value
$479.65
PnL
-$36.96
Record
46%
12022-13879 (25901)
Both legs:
tradecraftInvested
$472.93
Value
$406.02
PnL
-$66.9
Record
51%
6433-6217 (12650)
Invested
$194.87
Value
$180.77
PnL
-$14.1
Record
47%
10775-12319 (23094)
Invested
$144.94
Value
$152.01
PnL
+$7.07
Record
53%
23789-20956 (44745)
Invested
$65.54
Value
$67.29
PnL
+$1.75
Record
60%
4632-3039 (7671)
probability<$100Invested
$52.5
Value
$53.75
PnL
+$1.25
Record
40%
1583-2384 (3967)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.3
Record
48%
5491-5999 (11490)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$3.73
PnL
-$2.25
Record
48%
3352-3568 (6920)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.