Will West Indies win?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.1K
$367.69
74.3¢ → 69¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 79¢ | $649.49 | $675.89 | +$26.4 | 41% 1359-1916 (3275) |
SU SunlineTicker | Noavg 71.1¢ | $465.36 | $653.34 | +$187.98 | 62% 4123-2520 (6643) |
MI mishipolis | Noavg 70.6¢ | $497.27 | $616.64 | +$119.37 | 50% 4503-4437 (8940) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $58.13 | $91.8 | +$33.67 | 51% 5965-5659 (11624) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $16.35 | $16.63 | +$0.28 | 39% 3159-4962 (8121) |
probabilityInvested
$649.49
Value
$675.89
PnL
+$26.4
Record
41%
1359-1916 (3275)
Invested
$465.36
Value
$653.34
PnL
+$187.98
Record
62%
4123-2520 (6643)
Invested
$497.27
Value
$616.64
PnL
+$119.37
Record
50%
4503-4437 (8940)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$58.13
Value
$91.8
PnL
+$33.67
Record
51%
5965-5659 (11624)
Invested
$16.35
Value
$16.63
PnL
+$0.28
Record
39%
3159-4962 (8121)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.