Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Bangladesh win?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 50¢ · $918 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$917.8
$44.79
41.5¢ → 50¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mishipolisARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $451.06 | $518.41 | +$67.35 | 50% 4485-4420 (8905) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $375 | $330 | -$3.75 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36.2¢ | $179.28 | $188.41 | +$71.1 | |
 tradecraft | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $124.91 | $136.87 | +$11.96 | 51% 5922-5598 (11520) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Noavg 42¢ | $101.23 | $128.22 | +$26.99 | 51% 3908-3827 (7735) |
 probabilityARB<$100 | Noavg 44.6¢ | $99.4 | $116.21 | +$16.8 | 41% 1353-1910 (3263) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.6¢ | $82.27 | $90.38 | +$8.11 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.8¢ | $17.13 | $25.83 | +$8.69 | |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $12.25 | $18.09 | +$5.84 | 62% 4107-2513 (6620) |
Invested
$451.06
Value
$518.41
PnL
+$67.35
Record
50%
4485-4420 (8905)
Both legs:
tradecraftInvested
$124.91
Value
$136.87
PnL
+$11.96
Record
51%
5922-5598 (11520)
Invested
$101.23
Value
$128.22
PnL
+$26.99
Record
51%
3908-3827 (7735)
probabilityARB<$100Invested
$99.4
Value
$116.21
PnL
+$16.8
Record
41%
1353-1910 (3263)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.25
Value
$18.09
PnL
+$5.84
Record
62%
4107-2513 (6620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.