Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold England, while the market favors Australia (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

England Tour of Australia ODIs: Australia vs England

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold England (67%) · England at 47¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 22

Australia54¢England46¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

England

Consensus Traders

England 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$45.19

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 46.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEngland at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

England

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Australia 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Australia54%

England47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

England6 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares15,110

Combined PnL+$69.58

Australia3 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares10,388

Combined PnL-$24.4

England — 67%Australia — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Australiaavg 57¢	$10.7K	$10.7K	+$18.84	33% 11-22 (33)
└ Australia leg	Australiaavg 57¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$50.71
└ England leg	Englandavg 42.8¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$31.87
0X 0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003CTR	Englandavg 43¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$0	— 1-3 (4)
dips.	Australiaavg 57¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$0	48% 1156-1264 (2420)
PU purplegatto	Australiaavg 57.4¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$17.68	68% 2657-1243 (3900)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Englandavg 41¢	$783.41	$821.63	+$38.22	41% 147-215 (362)
tradecraftCTR	Englandavg 42.1¢	$601.45	$613.3	+$11.85	33% 427-868 (1295)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Englandavg 41¢	$400.11	$419.63	+$19.52	55% 54-44 (98)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Englandavg 43¢	$344	$344	-$0	28% 414-1082 (1496)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Australiaavg 54.5¢	$541.96	$227.27	+$14.58	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
└ Australia leg	Australiaavg 54.5¢	$114.72	$115.71	-$22.82
└ England leg	Englandavg 41.5¢	$102.79	$111.57	+$37.4
GA Gaditima	Australiaavg 59¢	$113.28	$106.56	-$6.72	49% 333-346 (679)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Englandavg 43¢	$17.27	$17.27	+$0	41% 1124-1597 (2721)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Australia

Invested

$10,673.54

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$18.84

Record

33%

11-22 (33)

Both legs:

Australia$6,215.257¢+$50.71

England$4,458.3442.8¢-$31.87

0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003CTR

England

Invested

$4,300

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-3 (4)

dips.

Australia

Invested

$3,042.66

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1156-1264 (2420)

purplegatto

Australia

Invested

$2,786.62

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$17.68

Record

68%

2657-1243 (3900)

mouzsynapseCTR

England

Invested

$783.41

Value

$821.63

PnL

+$38.22

Record

41%

147-215 (362)

tradecraftCTR

England

Invested

$601.45

Value

$613.3

PnL

+$11.85

Record

33%

427-868 (1295)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

England

Invested

$400.11

Value

$419.63

PnL

+$19.52

Record

55%

54-44 (98)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

England

Invested

$344

Value

$344

PnL

-$0

Record

28%

414-1082 (1496)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Australia

Invested

$541.96

Value

$227.27

PnL

+$14.58

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

Both legs:

Australia$114.7254.5¢-$22.82

England$102.7941.5¢+$37.4

Gaditima

Australia

Invested

$113.28

Value

$106.56

PnL

-$6.72

Record

49%

333-346 (679)

sentrioCTR<$100

England

Invested

$17.27

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1124-1597 (2721)

Research grade

NeutralEngland at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

England

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Australia 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that England wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.