England Tour of Australia ODIs: Australia vs England

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Australia (90%) · Australia at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 20

Australia54¢England46¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Australia

Consensus Traders

Australia 90%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$64.04

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 53.5¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAustralia at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Australia

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Australia54%

England47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Australia9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,791

Combined PnL+$64.04

England1 trader

Total Value$4.83

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0

Australia — 90%England — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Australia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAustralia 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Australia 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bagwell306	Australiaavg 50¢	$500	$535	+$35	29% 51-126 (177)
MO mouzsynapse	Australiaavg 52¢	$444.74	$457.56	+$12.83	39% 71-109 (180)
probability	Australiaavg 50.1¢	$143.35	$153.08	+$9.73	38% 14-23 (37)
tradecraft	Australiaavg 52.5¢	$143.15	$146.3	+$3.15	23% 193-656 (849)
MI midwicket72<$100	Australiaavg 53.1¢	$95.1	$94.88	-$0.22	— 6-11 (17)
GA Gaditima<$100	Australiaavg 51¢	$51	$53.5	+$2.5	46% 172-204 (376)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Australiaavg 53¢	$33.37	$33.68	+$0.31	48% 367-391 (758)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Australiaavg 52¢	$23.92	$24.61	+$0.69	36% 559-993 (1552)
38 38791873984189	Australiaavg 53¢	$115.73	$20.76	+$0.04	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Englandavg 47¢	$4.83	$4.83	+$0	46% 1757-2031 (3788)

Bagwell306

Australia

Invested

$500

Value

$535

PnL

+$35

Record

29%

51-126 (177)

mouzsynapse

Australia

Invested

$444.74

Value

$457.56

PnL

+$12.83

Record

39%

71-109 (180)

probability

Australia

Invested

$143.35

Value

$153.08

PnL

+$9.73

Record

38%

14-23 (37)

tradecraft

Australia

Invested

$143.15

Value

$146.3

PnL

+$3.15

Record

23%

193-656 (849)

midwicket72<$100

Australia

Invested

$95.1

Value

$94.88

PnL

-$0.22

Record

—

6-11 (17)

Gaditima<$100

Australia

Invested

$51

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

46%

172-204 (376)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Australia

Invested

$33.37

Value

$33.68

PnL

+$0.31

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

topdogbigboi<$100

Australia

Invested

$23.92

Value

$24.61

PnL

+$0.69

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

38791873984189

Australia

Invested

$115.73

Value

$20.76

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

suntoriCTR<$100

England

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

Research grade

NeutralAustralia at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Australia

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Australia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAustralia 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Australia 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Australia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.