Cricket World Cup League 2: UAE vs Oman

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UAE (50%) · UAE at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

UAE75¢Oman25¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UAE

Consensus Traders

UAE 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$681.82

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 74.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUAE at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UAE

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

UAE75%

Oman26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UAE3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,047

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Oman3 traders

Total Value$950.64

Total Shares1,901

Combined PnL+$418.08

UAE — 50%Oman — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA madkkee	UAEavg 72¢	$3.5K	$2.4K	$-1.1K	66% 1020-523 (1543)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Omanavg 28¢	$499.74	$892.39	+$392.65	59% 30196-20917 (51113)
PU purplegatto<$100	UAEavg 68.8¢	$91.17	$66.3	-$24.87	50% 5799-5905 (11704)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Omanavg 28.3¢	$16.86	$29.75	+$12.89	52% 3660-3323 (6983)
probabilityCTR<$100	Omanavg 28¢	$15.96	$28.5	+$12.54	41% 1348-1906 (3254)
poshposh<$100	UAEavg 61¢	$25.7	$26.02	+$0.32	59% 9650-6640 (16290)

madkkee

UAE

Invested

$3,519.31

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

66%

1020-523 (1543)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Oman

Invested

$499.74

Value

$892.39

PnL

+$392.65

Record

59%

30196-20917 (51113)

purplegatto<$100

UAE

Invested

$91.17

Value

$66.3

PnL

-$24.87

Record

50%

5799-5905 (11704)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Oman

Invested

$16.86

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$12.89

Record

52%

3660-3323 (6983)

probabilityCTR<$100

Oman

Invested

$15.96

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$12.54

Record

41%

1348-1906 (3254)

poshposh<$100

UAE

Invested

$25.7

Value

$26.02

PnL

+$0.32

Record

59%

9650-6640 (16290)

Research grade

NeutralUAE at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UAE

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UAE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.