Cricket World Cup League 2: UAE vs Netherlands

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Netherlands (20%) · Netherlands at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

UAE30¢Netherlands70¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Netherlands

Consensus Traders

Netherlands 20%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$18.92

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

UAE30%

Netherlands71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Netherlands1 trader

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,272

Combined PnL+$32.72

UAE4 traders

Total Value$239.63

Total Shares766

Combined PnL-$13.8

Netherlands — 20%UAE — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Netherlandsavg 69¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$32.72	59% 30459-21177 (51636)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	UAEavg 32.8¢	$208.72	$191.71	-$17.01	49% 7885-8203 (16088)
poshposhCTR<$100	UAEavg 30¢	$41.89	$44.63	+$2.74	59% 10125-7117 (17242)
probabilityCTR<$100	UAEavg 27¢	$1.96	$2.32	+$0.54	42% 1361-1917 (3278)
HRTradingCTR<$100	UAEavg 32¢	$1.04	$0.98	-$0.07	53% 4540-4093 (8633)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Netherlands

Invested

$2,257.6

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$32.72

Record

59%

30459-21177 (51636)

topdogbigboiCTR

UAE

Invested

$208.72

Value

$191.71

PnL

-$17.01

Record

49%

7885-8203 (16088)

poshposhCTR<$100

UAE

Invested

$41.89

Value

$44.63

PnL

+$2.74

Record

59%

10125-7117 (17242)

probabilityCTR<$100

UAE

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0.54

Record

42%

1361-1917 (3278)

HRTradingCTR<$100

UAE

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Netherlands wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.