Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Zimbabwe win?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 20

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$75.24

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 50¢

-30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$663.36

Total Shares1,134

Combined PnL+$220.18

No5 traders

Total Value$594.16

Total Shares1,224

Combined PnL-$295.42

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Yesavg 28.6¢	$427.64	$634.34	+$206.7	31% 343-780 (1123)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 71.5¢	$552.49	$320.57	-$171.86	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 71.9¢	$184.51	$132.8	-$51.71	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
SM smithagent	Noavg 72¢	$138.96	$90.71	-$48.25	44% 661-825 (1486)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 72¢	$172.17	$48.41	-$23.6	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$8.4	$15.44	+$7.05	70% 1724-751 (2475)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$3.53	$7.57	+$4.04	46% 497-591 (1088)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$3.61	$6	+$2.39	39% 121-186 (307)
probability<$100	Noavg 47¢	$1.67	$1.67	+$0	52% 33-30 (63)

tradecraft

Yes

Invested

$427.64

Value

$634.34

PnL

+$206.7

Record

31%

343-780 (1123)

38791873984189

Invested

$552.49

Value

$320.57

PnL

-$171.86

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$184.51

Value

$132.8

PnL

-$51.71

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

smithagent

Invested

$138.96

Value

$90.71

PnL

-$48.25

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

cigarettes

Invested

$172.17

Value

$48.41

PnL

-$23.6

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

SunlineTicker<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$7.05

Record

70%

1724-751 (2475)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.53

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$4.04

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

mouzsynapse<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.61

Value

PnL

+$2.39

Record

39%

121-186 (307)

probability<$100

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

33-30 (63)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.