Will Afghanistan win?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
$184.95
59.6¢ → 69¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraft | Noavg 58.9¢ | $685.61 | $792.29 | +$106.68 | 30% 322-764 (1086) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 59.7¢ | $211.6 | $250.78 | +$39.18 | 38% 981-1634 (2615) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.7¢ | $141.69 | $161.26 | +$19.58 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25¢ | $69.91 | $89.52 | +$19.61 | |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $187.61 | $172.7 | +$19.09 | 70% 1723-751 (2474) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 25.2¢ | $112.07 | $142.29 | +$30.22 | 52% 30-28 (58) |
 dips. | Noavg 60.1¢ | $100.36 | $116.07 | +$15.7 | 47% 940-1065 (2005) |
CI cigarettesARB<$100 | Yesavg 36.3¢ | $88.5 | $82 | -$6.5 | 53% 6992-6143 (13135) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.3¢ | $54.5 | $48 | -$6.5 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 | |
SM smithagent<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $42.84 | $43.79 | +$0.94 | 44% 632-791 (1423) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $223.29 | $16.25 | +$12.31 | 48% 3155-3450 (6605) |
tradecraftInvested
$685.61
Value
$792.29
PnL
+$106.68
Record
30%
322-764 (1086)
Invested
$211.6
Value
$250.78
PnL
+$39.18
Record
38%
981-1634 (2615)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.61
Value
$172.7
PnL
+$19.09
Record
70%
1723-751 (2474)
probabilityCTRInvested
$112.07
Value
$142.29
PnL
+$30.22
Record
52%
30-28 (58)
dips.Invested
$100.36
Value
$116.07
PnL
+$15.7
Record
47%
940-1065 (2005)
Invested
$88.5
Value
$82
PnL
-$6.5
Record
53%
6992-6143 (13135)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.84
Value
$43.79
PnL
+$0.94
Record
44%
632-791 (1423)
Invested
$223.29
Value
$16.25
PnL
+$12.31
Record
48%
3155-3450 (6605)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.