Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will the match end in a draw?
Resolved Yes. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$372.01
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Yesavg 62.6¢ | $1.2K | $2.1K | +$898.59 | 48% 72230-77977 (150207) |
 tradecraftARB<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $2.4K | $123.49 | $-2.4K | 51% 6933-6582 (13515) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 14.7¢ | $18.21 | $123.49 | +$105.95 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 33¢ | $2.7K | — | $-2.5K | |
SU SunlineTicker | Yesavg 73.2¢ | $254.31 | $191 | -$65.31 | 54% 5399-4606 (10005) |
 dips.CTR | Noavg 12.4¢ | $107.56 | — | -$116.28 | 48% 17828-19546 (37374) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Noavg 67.5¢ | $230.81 | — | -$210.86 | 50% 66281-66811 (133092) |
 probabilityCTR | Noavg 34.4¢ | $134.13 | — | -$134.13 | 38% 1810-2977 (4787) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Noavg 8.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 657-2369 (3026) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 47657-54240 (101897) |
Invested
$1,181.06
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$898.59
Record
48%
72230-77977 (150207)
tradecraftARB<$100Invested
$2,428.91
Value
$123.49
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
51%
6933-6582 (13515)
Both legs:
Invested
$254.31
Value
$191
PnL
-$65.31
Record
54%
5399-4606 (10005)
dips.CTRInvested
$107.56
Value
—
PnL
-$116.28
Record
48%
17828-19546 (37374)
Invested
$230.81
Value
—
PnL
-$210.86
Record
50%
66281-66811 (133092)
probabilityCTRInvested
$134.13
Value
—
PnL
-$134.13
Record
38%
1810-2977 (4787)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
657-2369 (3026)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
47657-54240 (101897)