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tradecraftNoNo
dips.CTR<$100YesYes
probabilityCTRYesYesNoNo
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Afghanistan win?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
8
No 33%
Total Value
$5.2K
Combined PnL
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$5.2K
Total Shares5,248
Combined PnL-$597.14
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares4,010
Combined PnL-$408.42
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
tradecraft | Noavg 82.5¢ | $3.9K | $3.4K | -$443.22 | 51% 6933-6582 (13515) |
SU SunlineTicker | Noavg 86¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$153.92 | 54% 5399-4606 (10005) |
dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $77.21 | — | -$77.21 | 48% 17828-19546 (37374) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $161.51 | — | -$161.51 | 48% 72230-77977 (150207) |
probabilityCTR | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $144.13 | — | -$144.13 | 38% 1810-2977 (4787) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $11.42 | — | -$25.57 | 50% 66281-66811 (133092) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 657-2369 (3026) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 47657-54240 (101897) |
tradecraftInvested
$3,877.76
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$443.22
Record
51%
6933-6582 (13515)
SU
SunlineTickerInvested
$1,961.91
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$153.92
Record
54%
5399-4606 (10005)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$77.21
Value
—
PnL
-$77.21
Record
48%
17828-19546 (37374)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$161.51
Value
—
PnL
-$161.51
Record
48%
72230-77977 (150207)
probabilityCTRInvested
$144.13
Value
—
PnL
-$144.13
Record
38%
1810-2977 (4787)
CI
cigarettesCTR<$100Invested
$11.42
Value
—
PnL
-$25.57
Record
50%
66281-66811 (133092)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
657-2369 (3026)
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
47657-54240 (101897)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3b0b69ae...f3f2e5
Slug
crint-afg-zwe-2026-11-05-afg