Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Afghanistan (100%) · Afghanistan at 72¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 8

Afghanistan72¢Zimbabwe28¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Afghanistan

Consensus Traders

Afghanistan 100%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.0K

Combined PnL

-$330.8

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan

3 of 3 top traders (100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Afghanistan72%

Zimbabwe28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Afghanistan3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,729

Combined PnL-$330.8

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAfghanistan 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Afghanistan 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Afghanistanavg 70¢	$73.3K	$37.2K	$-1.9K	54% 251-215 (466)
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 70¢	$26.7K	$25.8K	-$948.22
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 35.3¢	$12.4K	$11.4K	-$974.15
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Afghanistanavg 71.2¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$258.75	47% 2571-2857 (5428)
tradecraftARB<$100	Afghanistanavg 62.2¢	$949.59	$1.1K	+$131.88	51% 6065-5785 (11850)
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 62.2¢	$653.72	$725.32	+$71.6
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 27¢	$295.88	$339.71	+$60.27
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Afghanistanavg 65.2¢	$935.68	$926.83	-$8.85	48% 8915-9527 (18442)
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 65.2¢	$695.07	$682.33	-$12.74
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 31.5¢	$240.61	$244.5	+$3.89
poshposh	Afghanistanavg 66.8¢	$807.47	$775.43	-$32.05	58% 10631-7605 (18236)
BA Bagwell306	Afghanistanavg 73¢	$730	$640	-$40	58% 4066-2890 (6956)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Afghanistanavg 62¢	$90	$96	+$6	50% 4581-4518 (9099)
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 62¢	$62	$64	+$2
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 28¢	$28	$32	+$4

midwicket72ARB<$100

Afghanistan

Invested

$73,259.44

Value

$37.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

251-215 (466)

Both legs:

Afghanistan$26,698.6570¢-$948.22

Zimbabwe$12,382.4635.3¢-$974.15

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Afghanistan

Invested

$2,562.75

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$258.75

Record

47%

2571-2857 (5428)

tradecraftARB<$100

Afghanistan

Invested

$949.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$131.88

Record

51%

6065-5785 (11850)

Both legs:

Afghanistan$653.7262.2¢+$71.6

Zimbabwe$295.8827¢+$60.27

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Afghanistan

Invested

$935.68

Value

$926.83

PnL

-$8.85

Record

48%

8915-9527 (18442)

Both legs:

Afghanistan$695.0765.2¢-$12.74

Zimbabwe$240.6131.5¢+$3.89

poshposh

Afghanistan

Invested

$807.47

Value

$775.43

PnL

-$32.05

Record

58%

10631-7605 (18236)

Bagwell306

Afghanistan

Invested

$730

Value

$640

PnL

-$40

Record

58%

4066-2890 (6956)

mishipolisARB<$100

Afghanistan

Invested

$90

Value

$96

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

4581-4518 (9099)

Both legs:

Afghanistan$6262¢+$2

Zimbabwe$2828¢+$4

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan

3 of 3 top traders (100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAfghanistan 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Afghanistan 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Afghanistan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.