Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Afghanistan (57%) · Afghanistan at 96¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 5

Afghanistan96¢Zimbabwe4¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Afghanistan

Consensus Traders

Afghanistan 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$799.03

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 95.5¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Afghanistan96%

Zimbabwe5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Afghanistan4 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares15,927

Combined PnL+$918.29

Zimbabwe3 traders

Total Value$573.03

Total Shares1,166

Combined PnL-$119.25

Afghanistan — 57%Zimbabwe — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	Afghanistanavg 62.6¢	$9.5K	$10.5K	+$939.15	55% 247-206 (453)
MA madkkee	Afghanistanavg 79¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$171.08	66% 1021-524 (1545)
poshposhARB<$100	Zimbabweavg 57.9¢	$1.1K	$917.14	-$143.51	59% 9678-6667 (16345)
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 57.9¢	$656.15	$470.63	-$185.52
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 53¢	$404.5	$446.51	+$42.01
PA pauleta23CTR	Zimbabweavg 62.9¢	$489.6	$381.29	-$108.31	67% 23205-11605 (34810)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Afghanistanavg 76¢	$429.28	$288.07	-$141.21	47% 2443-2742 (5185)
OM omnibus-076daa	Afghanistanavg 95¢	$247.6	$196.87	-$50.73	49% 18820-19225 (38045)
tradecraftCTR	Zimbabweavg 52.2¢	$195.44	$183.31	-$12.13	51% 5923-5598 (11521)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Zimbabweavg 65.9¢	$145.46	$106.89	-$22.97	50% 4486-4423 (8909)
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 65.9¢	$75.32	$54.89	-$24.97
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 50¢	$50	$52	+$2
HRTradingCTR<$100	Zimbabweavg 35.1¢	$7.24	$8.44	+$1.19	52% 3691-3354 (7045)

midwicket72

Afghanistan

Invested

$9,522.34

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$939.15

Record

55%

247-206 (453)

madkkee

Afghanistan

Invested

$3,861.51

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$171.08

Record

66%

1021-524 (1545)

poshposhARB<$100

Zimbabwe

Invested

$1,060.65

Value

$917.14

PnL

-$143.51

Record

59%

9678-6667 (16345)

Both legs:

Zimbabwe$656.1557.9¢-$185.52

Afghanistan$404.553¢+$42.01

pauleta23CTR

Zimbabwe

Invested

$489.6

Value

$381.29

PnL

-$108.31

Record

67%

23205-11605 (34810)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Afghanistan

Invested

$429.28

Value

$288.07

PnL

-$141.21

Record

47%

2443-2742 (5185)

omnibus-076daa

Afghanistan

Invested

$247.6

Value

$196.87

PnL

-$50.73

Record

49%

18820-19225 (38045)

tradecraftCTR

Zimbabwe

Invested

$195.44

Value

$183.31

PnL

-$12.13

Record

51%

5923-5598 (11521)

mishipolisARB<$100

Zimbabwe

Invested

$145.46

Value

$106.89

PnL

-$22.97

Record

50%

4486-4423 (8909)

Both legs:

Zimbabwe$75.3265.9¢-$24.97

Afghanistan$5050¢+$2

HRTradingCTR<$100

Zimbabwe

Invested

$7.24

Value

$8.44

PnL

+$1.19

Record

52%

3691-3354 (7045)

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Afghanistan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.