Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Afghanistan (75%) · Afghanistan at 96¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 3

Afghanistan96¢Zimbabwe4¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Afghanistan

Consensus Traders

Afghanistan 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 96¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Afghanistan96%

Zimbabwe4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Afghanistan6 traders

Total Value$22.8K

Total Shares23,353

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Zimbabwe2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,341

Combined PnL-$392.23

Afghanistan — 75%Zimbabwe — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrZimbabwe 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Afghanistan 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	Afghanistanavg 64.3¢	$9.1K	$10.7K	+$1.5K	55% 246-204 (450)
MA madkkee	Afghanistanavg 88¢	$7.8K	$7.9K	+$44.44	66% 1003-519 (1522)
OM omnibus-076daa	Afghanistanavg 88.4¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$25.92	49% 18399-18822 (37221)
FO fortuneking	Afghanistanavg 81¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$146.3	59% 772-534 (1306)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Zimbabweavg 45.8¢	$1.3K	$728	-$552.99	51% 1203-1134 (2337)
DevilswithjoystickCTR	Zimbabweavg 19.7¢	$500	$660.77	+$160.77	45% 18-22 (40)
poshposhARB<$100	Zimbabweavg 56.3¢	$408.83	$295.81	-$113.02	60% 9092-6016 (15108)
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 54.4¢	$119.17	$161.97	+$42.8
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 56.3¢	$289.65	$133.84	-$155.81
tradecraftARB<$100	Zimbabweavg 65¢	$412.29	$211.85	-$200.44	52% 5820-5438 (11258)
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 65¢	$329.87	$131.91	-$197.96
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 76.3¢	$82.42	$79.93	-$2.49
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Afghanistanavg 95¢	$152	$149.6	-$2.4	50% 2532-2574 (5106)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Afghanistanavg 51.8¢	$284	$93.56	+$61.72	50% 4407-4338 (8745)
└ Afghanistan leg	Afghanistanavg 51.8¢	$47.29	$67.56	+$29.72
└ Zimbabwe leg	Zimbabweavg 25¢	$25	$26	+$32
HRTrading<$100	Afghanistanavg 44¢	$2.2	$4.63	+$2.23	54% 2570-2206 (4776)

midwicket72

Afghanistan

Invested

$9,128.96

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

55%

246-204 (450)

madkkee

Afghanistan

Invested

$7,821.44

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$44.44

Record

66%

1003-519 (1522)

omnibus-076daa

Afghanistan

Invested

$2,612.53

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25.92

Record

49%

18399-18822 (37221)

fortuneking

Afghanistan

Invested

$1,692.87

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$146.3

Record

59%

772-534 (1306)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Zimbabwe

Invested

$1,281

Value

$728

PnL

-$552.99

Record

51%

1203-1134 (2337)

DevilswithjoystickCTR

Zimbabwe

Invested

$500

Value

$660.77

PnL

+$160.77

Record

45%

18-22 (40)

poshposhARB<$100

Zimbabwe

Invested

$408.83

Value

$295.81

PnL

-$113.02

Record

60%

9092-6016 (15108)

Both legs:

Afghanistan$119.1754.4¢+$42.8

Zimbabwe$289.6556.3¢-$155.81

tradecraftARB<$100

Zimbabwe

Invested

$412.29

Value

$211.85

PnL

-$200.44

Record

52%

5820-5438 (11258)

Both legs:

Zimbabwe$329.8765¢-$197.96

Afghanistan$82.4276.3¢-$2.49

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Afghanistan

Invested

$152

Value

$149.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

50%

2532-2574 (5106)

mishipolisARB<$100

Afghanistan

Invested

$284

Value

$93.56

PnL

+$61.72

Record

50%

4407-4338 (8745)

Both legs:

Afghanistan$47.2951.8¢+$29.72

Zimbabwe$2525¢+$32

HRTrading<$100

Afghanistan

Invested

$2.2

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$2.23

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrZimbabwe 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Afghanistan 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Afghanistan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.