Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Thunder vs Brisbane Heat
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney Thunder (80%) · Sydney Thunder at 100¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Sydney Thunder
5
Sydney Thunder 80%
$16.8K
$3.1K
65.1¢ → 100¢
+54% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSydney Thunder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Sydney Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72 | Sydney Thunderavg 64.9¢ | $21.5K | $16.0K | +$3.4K | 54% 251-215 (466) |
 tradecraft | Sydney Thunderavg 82¢ | $396.73 | $396.53 | +$71.07 | 51% 6062-5779 (11841) |
RI RichieRicher | Sydney Thunderavg 55.6¢ | $160.42 | $285.91 | +$9.96 | 53% 741-647 (1388) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Brisbane Heatavg 38¢ | $491.77 | $110.82 | -$380.95 | 47% 2569-2855 (5424) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Sydney Thunderavg 49.5¢ | $9.28 | $13.32 | +$4.04 | 53% 5561-4981 (10542) |
Invested
$21,472.65
Value
$16.0K
PnL
+$3.4K
Record
54%
251-215 (466)
tradecraftInvested
$396.73
Value
$396.53
PnL
+$71.07
Record
51%
6062-5779 (11841)
Invested
$160.42
Value
$285.91
PnL
+$9.96
Record
53%
741-647 (1388)
Invested
$491.77
Value
$110.82
PnL
-$380.95
Record
47%
2569-2855 (5424)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.28
Value
$13.32
PnL
+$4.04
Record
53%
5561-4981 (10542)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.