Big Bash League, Women: Perth Scorchers vs Adelaide Strikers

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Perth Scorchers (73%) · Perth Scorchers at 59¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 21

Perth Scorchers59¢Adelaide Strikers41¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Perth Scorchers

Consensus Traders

Perth Scorchers 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$29.62

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 58.5¢

-12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPerth Scorchers at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Perth Scorchers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Perth Scorchers59%

Adelaide Strikers42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Perth Scorchers8 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares7,790

Combined PnL+$80.25

Adelaide Strikers3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,450

Combined PnL-$50.63

Perth Scorchers — 73%Adelaide Strikers — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 66.1¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	-$17.67	37% 10-17 (27)
└ Perth Scorchers leg	Perth Scorchersavg 66.1¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$99.29
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 35¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$116.96
tradecraft	Perth Scorchersavg 68.4¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$53.89	30% 322-764 (1086)
NA nanir488CTR	Adelaide Strikersavg 34.3¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$49.37	48% 12-13 (25)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Perth Scorchersavg 62.6¢	$993.19	$1.0K	+$14.74	52% 37-34 (71)
NO Notradecopy	Perth Scorchersavg 63.1¢	$754.78	$766.08	+$11.3	19% 44-191 (235)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Adelaide Strikersavg 35.8¢	$329.43	$304.99	-$24.44	38% 981-1634 (2615)
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 35.8¢	$223.23	$196.29	-$26.94
└ Perth Scorchers leg	Perth Scorchersavg 66.9¢	$106.2	$108.7	+$2.5
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 56¢	$514.09	$181.77	-$14.93	52% 793-723 (1516)
└ Perth Scorchers leg	Perth Scorchersavg 56¢	$121.11	$126.59	+$40.05
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 46.7¢	$62.07	$55.18	-$54.99
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 63.6¢	$42.51	$43.15	+$0.63	40% 112-171 (283)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 67¢	$27.52	$27.11	-$0.41	46% 472-558 (1030)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Adelaide Strikersavg 31.4¢	$22.52	$21.51	-$1.01	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
dips.<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 71¢	$9.23	$9.23	+$0	47% 940-1065 (2005)
SM smithagent<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 72¢	$7.2	$7.1	-$0.1	44% 632-791 (1423)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Adelaide Strikersavg 44¢	$1.57	$1.32	-$0.25	47% 34-39 (73)
probability<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 49¢	$0.72	$0.93	+$0.21	52% 30-28 (58)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$6,196.52

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$17.67

Record

37%

10-17 (27)

Both legs:

Perth Scorchers$4,559.566.1¢+$99.29

Adelaide Strikers$1,637.0135¢-$116.96

tradecraft

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$3,333.21

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$53.89

Record

30%

322-764 (1086)

nanir488CTR

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$2,184.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$49.37

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

GamblingAddict12345

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$993.19

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$14.74

Record

52%

37-34 (71)

Notradecopy

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$754.78

Value

$766.08

PnL

+$11.3

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$329.43

Value

$304.99

PnL

-$24.44

Record

38%

981-1634 (2615)

Both legs:

Adelaide Strikers$223.2335.8¢-$26.94

Perth Scorchers$106.266.9¢+$2.5

NotJumpARB<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$514.09

Value

$181.77

PnL

-$14.93

Record

52%

793-723 (1516)

Both legs:

Perth Scorchers$121.1156¢+$40.05

Adelaide Strikers$62.0746.7¢-$54.99

mouzsynapse<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$42.51

Value

$43.15

PnL

+$0.63

Record

40%

112-171 (283)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$27.52

Value

$27.11

PnL

-$0.41

Record

46%

472-558 (1030)

suntoriCTR<$100

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$22.52

Value

$21.51

PnL

-$1.01

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

dips.<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$9.23

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

940-1065 (2005)

smithagent<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

632-791 (1423)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

34-39 (73)

probability<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

30-28 (58)

Research grade

NeutralPerth Scorchers at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Perth Scorchers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Perth Scorchers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.