Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hobart Hurricanes, while the market favors Melbourne Stars (65%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Stars vs Hobart Hurricanes

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Hobart Hurricanes (75%) · Hobart Hurricanes at 36¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 5

Melbourne Stars65¢Hobart Hurricanes35¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hobart Hurricanes

Consensus Traders

Hobart Hurricanes 75%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$627.11

Smart Money Entry

37.6¢ → 35.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHobart Hurricanes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hobart Hurricanes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Melbourne Stars 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne Stars65%

Hobart Hurricanes36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hobart Hurricanes6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares14,418

Combined PnL+$229.44

Melbourne Stars2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,546

Combined PnL+$397.68

Hobart Hurricanes — 75%Melbourne Stars — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IR IrfanyousufCTR	Hobart Hurricanesavg 35¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$57.8	50% 53-53 (106)
MI midwicket72	Melbourne Starsavg 50.5¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$393.78	55% 247-206 (453)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Hobart Hurricanesavg 51.5¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$189.7	47% 2442-2736 (5178)
BL blketCTR	Hobart Hurricanesavg 39.6¢	$300	$268.97	-$31.03	68% 591-280 (871)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Hobart Hurricanesavg 47¢	$36.47	$47.34	+$10.86	50% 4483-4417 (8900)
poshposh<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 40¢	$41.5	$45.4	+$3.9	59% 9650-6640 (16290)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Hobart Hurricanesavg 51¢	$10.51	$12.57	+$2.06	49% 3904-4102 (8006)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Hobart Hurricanesavg 51¢	$1.04	$1.08	+$0.04	51% 3906-3825 (7731)

IrfanyousufCTR

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$4,046.17

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$57.8

Record

50%

53-53 (106)

midwicket72

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$1,750.25

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$393.78

Record

55%

247-206 (453)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$1,031.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$189.7

Record

47%

2442-2736 (5178)

blketCTR

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$300

Value

$268.97

PnL

-$31.03

Record

68%

591-280 (871)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$36.47

Value

$47.34

PnL

+$10.86

Record

50%

4483-4417 (8900)

poshposh<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$41.5

Value

$45.4

PnL

+$3.9

Record

59%

9650-6640 (16290)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$10.51

Value

$12.57

PnL

+$2.06

Record

49%

3904-4102 (8006)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

3906-3825 (7731)

Research grade

NeutralHobart Hurricanes at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hobart Hurricanes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Melbourne Stars 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hobart Hurricanes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.