Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Renegades vs Sydney Thunder

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney Thunder (75%) · Sydney Thunder at 86¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 5

Melbourne Renegades14¢Sydney Thunder86¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sydney Thunder

Consensus Traders

Sydney Thunder 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$423.98

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 86¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSydney Thunder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Thunder

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne Renegades14%

Sydney Thunder86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sydney Thunder6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,332

Combined PnL-$438.77

Melbourne Renegades2 traders

Total Value$36.88

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$14.79

Sydney Thunder — 75%Melbourne Renegades — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA madkkee	Sydney Thunderavg 63¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$84.44	66% 1019-523 (1542)
MI midwicket72	Sydney Thunderavg 60.6¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$376.68	55% 247-206 (453)
NO Notradecopy	Sydney Thunderavg 57.5¢	$464.14	$310.75	-$153.39	49% 3903-4096 (7999)
PA pauleta23	Sydney Thunderavg 65.4¢	$185.72	$200.1	+$14.38	67% 23164-11564 (34728)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Sydney Thunderavg 80¢	$59	$60	+$1	50% 4463-4400 (8863)
└ Sydney Thunder leg	Sydney Thunderavg 80¢	$40	$40	+$0
└ Melbourne Renegades leg	Melbourne Renegadesavg 19¢	$19	$20	+$1
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 35¢	$18.97	$33.33	+$14.36	49% 18770-19171 (37941)
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Sydney Thunderavg 62¢	$19.58	$12.16	-$7.42	51% 3904-3818 (7722)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Sydney Thunderavg 71¢	$6.92	$6.82	-$0.1	53% 708-635 (1343)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 40¢	$3.12	$3.55	+$0.43	53% 3488-3134 (6622)

madkkee

Sydney Thunder

Invested

$2,659.85

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$84.44

Record

66%

1019-523 (1542)

midwicket72

Sydney Thunder

Invested

$2,465.08

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$376.68

Record

55%

247-206 (453)

Notradecopy

Sydney Thunder

Invested

$464.14

Value

$310.75

PnL

-$153.39

Record

49%

3903-4096 (7999)

pauleta23

Sydney Thunder

Invested

$185.72

Value

$200.1

PnL

+$14.38

Record

67%

23164-11564 (34728)

mishipolisARB<$100

Sydney Thunder

Invested

$59

Value

$60

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

4463-4400 (8863)

Both legs:

Sydney Thunder$4080¢+$0

Melbourne Renegades$1919¢+$1

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$18.97

Value

$33.33

PnL

+$14.36

Record

49%

18770-19171 (37941)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Sydney Thunder

Invested

$19.58

Value

$12.16

PnL

-$7.42

Record

51%

3904-3818 (7722)

RichieRicher<$100

Sydney Thunder

Invested

$6.92

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

708-635 (1343)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

3488-3134 (6622)

Research grade

NeutralSydney Thunder at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Thunder

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sydney Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.