Big Bash League, Women: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Brisbane Heat (83%) · Brisbane Heat at 96¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 21

Hobart Hurricanes4¢Brisbane Heat96¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Brisbane Heat

Consensus Traders

Brisbane Heat 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$880.16

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 96.3¢

+21% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrisbane Heat at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Heat

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hobart Hurricanes4%

Brisbane Heat96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brisbane Heat10 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares11,588

Combined PnL+$987.7

Hobart Hurricanes2 traders

Total Value$141.35

Total Shares4,157

Combined PnL-$107.54

Brisbane Heat — 83%Hobart Hurricanes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Brisbane Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBrisbane Heat 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrisbane Heat 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Brisbane Heat 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smithagent	Brisbane Heatavg 94¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$88.74	44% 614-768 (1382)
MI midwicket72	Brisbane Heatavg 79.7¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$137.89	37% 10-17 (27)
RU RUDY2323	Brisbane Heatavg 69.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$239.01	42% 13-18 (31)
MO mouzsynapse	Brisbane Heatavg 58¢	$853.83	$1.4K	+$515.08	40% 110-167 (277)
dips.	Brisbane Heatavg 93.3¢	$836.1	$865.57	+$29.48	47% 914-1028 (1942)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Brisbane Heatavg 59¢	$325.59	$504.07	+$184.48	51% 36-34 (70)
TO topdogbigboi	Brisbane Heatavg 74.2¢	$491.53	$449.66	-$41.88	37% 909-1532 (2441)
NO NotJump	Brisbane Heatavg 93.6¢	$797.76	$206.56	-$3.87	53% 760-685 (1445)
poshposhARB<$100	Hobart Hurricanesavg 27.9¢	$324.46	$191.76	-$132.69	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 62.7¢	$89.46	$132.71	+$43.26
└ Hobart Hurricanes leg	Hobart Hurricanesavg 27.9¢	$235	$59.05	-$175.95
SL SlickRick123	Brisbane Heatavg 54¢	$105.43	$181.58	+$76.15	34% 351-680 (1031)
RI RichieRicher	Brisbane Heatavg 69¢	$110.4	$148.8	+$38.4	54% 476-400 (876)
NA nanir488CTR	Hobart Hurricanesavg 6¢	$247.75	$141.15	-$106.6	48% 12-13 (25)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Hobart Hurricanesavg 26.3¢	$385.8	$112.96	-$272.84	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 94.7¢	$70.75	$72.16	+$1.41
└ Hobart Hurricanes leg	Hobart Hurricanesavg 26.3¢	$315.05	$40.8	-$274.25
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Hobart Hurricanesavg 20¢	$1.14	$0.19	-$0.95	45% 2420-2899 (5319)

smithagent

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$3,293.59

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$88.74

Record

44%

614-768 (1382)

midwicket72

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$2,764.55

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$137.89

Record

37%

10-17 (27)

RUDY2323

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$1,560.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$239.01

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

mouzsynapse

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$853.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$515.08

Record

40%

110-167 (277)

dips.

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$836.1

Value

$865.57

PnL

+$29.48

Record

47%

914-1028 (1942)

GamblingAddict12345

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$325.59

Value

$504.07

PnL

+$184.48

Record

51%

36-34 (70)

topdogbigboi

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$491.53

Value

$449.66

PnL

-$41.88

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

NotJump

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$797.76

Value

$206.56

PnL

-$3.87

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

poshposhARB<$100

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$324.46

Value

$191.76

PnL

-$132.69

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

Both legs:

Brisbane Heat$89.4662.7¢+$43.26

Hobart Hurricanes$23527.9¢-$175.95

SlickRick123

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$105.43

Value

$181.58

PnL

+$76.15

Record

34%

351-680 (1031)

RichieRicher

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$110.4

Value

$148.8

PnL

+$38.4

Record

54%

476-400 (876)

nanir488CTR

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$247.75

Value

$141.15

PnL

-$106.6

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

cigarettesARB<$100

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$385.8

Value

$112.96

PnL

-$272.84

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

Both legs:

Brisbane Heat$70.7594.7¢+$1.41

Hobart Hurricanes$315.0526.3¢-$274.25

suntoriCTR<$100

Hobart Hurricanes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.95

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

Research grade

NeutralBrisbane Heat at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Heat

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Brisbane Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBrisbane Heat 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrisbane Heat 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Brisbane Heat 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Brisbane Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.