Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hobart Hurricanes, while the market favors Adelaide Strikers (69%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Big Bash League, Women: Hobart Hurricanes vs Adelaide Strikers
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Hobart Hurricanes (75%) · Hobart Hurricanes at 31¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Hobart Hurricanes
4
Hobart Hurricanes 75%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$260.73
38.1¢ → 31¢
-19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralHobart Hurricanes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Adelaide Strikers 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72ARB<$100 | Adelaide Strikersavg 61.7¢ | $4.1K | $4.2K | +$106.8 | — 1-2 (3) |
| └ Adelaide Strikers leg | Adelaide Strikersavg 61.7¢ | $2.7K | $2.9K | +$230.41 | |
| └ Hobart Hurricanes leg | Hobart Hurricanesavg 36¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$123.62 | |
CI cigarettesCTR | Hobart Hurricanesavg 37.8¢ | $927 | $1.2K | +$298 | 52% 5288-4799 (10087) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Adelaide Strikersavg 62¢ | $248 | $200 | -$48 | 8% 71-770 (841) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Hobart Hurricanesavg 42.4¢ | $66.18 | $78.1 | +$11.93 | 41% 184-261 (445) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Hobart Hurricanesavg 35¢ | $20 | $18.81 | -$1.19 | 19% 97-408 (505) |
Invested
$4,129.98
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$106.8
Record
—
1-2 (3)
Both legs:
Invested
$927
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$298
Record
52%
5288-4799 (10087)
Invested
$248
Value
$200
PnL
-$48
Record
8%
71-770 (841)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$66.18
Value
$78.1
PnL
+$11.93
Record
41%
184-261 (445)
Invested
$20
Value
$18.81
PnL
-$1.19
Record
19%
97-408 (505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.